Question

what heuristic estimates the probability of something occurring based on how easily one recalls relevant occurrences of the event?

representativeness
expected value
subjective utility
availability

Explanation:

Analyze the question prompt

The question asks for a heuristic that estimates the probability of an event based on how easily relevant occurrences of that event can be recalled from memory.

Evaluate the given options

• representativeness: This heuristic involves estimating the probability of an event by comparing it to an existing prototype or stereotype in our minds.
• expected value: This is a mathematical calculation of the average outcome of a random variable, not a cognitive heuristic based on recall.
• subjective utility: This refers to an individual's personal evaluation of the value or usefulness of an outcome, rather than a probability estimation heuristic.
• availability: This heuristic estimates the likelihood or frequency of an event based on how easily examples of it come to mind (i.e., their cognitive availability).

Select the correct option

Since the prompt specifically mentions estimating probability based on how easily one "recalls" relevant occurrences, this directly defines the availability heuristic.

Answer:

• representativeness
• expected value
• subjective utility
• availability (Correct answer)