Question

if i eat more chocolate, will i win a nobel prize?
most people love chocolate for its great taste. but does it also make you smarter? a scatterplot like this one appeared in the new england journal of medicine. each point on the scatterplot represents a country. the explanatory variable is the chocolate consumption per resident. the response variable is the number of nobel prizes won per 10 million residents of that country.

1. interpret the correlation of ( r = 0.791 ).
2. if people in the united states started eating more chocolate, can we expect more nobel prizes to be awarded to residents of the united states? explain your reasoning.

Explanation:

Step1: Interpret the correlation coefficient

The correlation coefficient \( r = 0.791 \). Since \( r>0 \), there is a positive association. Also, \( |r| \) is close to \( 1 \) ( \( 0.791\) is relatively large).

Step2: Analyze causation

Correlation does not imply causation. Just because there is a positive correlation between chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes per capita at the country - level does not mean that increasing chocolate consumption in the US will cause more Nobel Prizes. There could be confounding variables (e.g., economic development, investment in education and research in a country which might be related to both chocolate - buying power and scientific/academic achievements).

Answer:

1. There is a strong positive linear association between chocolate consumption per resident and the number of Nobel Prizes won per 10 million residents of a country.
2. No. Just because there is a correlation between chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes at the country - level (as measured in the scatter - plot) does not mean that there is a causal relationship. Correlation does not equal causation. There could be other factors (confounding variables) that are related to both a country's chocolate consumption and its number of Nobel Prizes (such as overall economic development, investment in education and research etc.).