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Question
in each turn of a game you toss two coins. if 2 heads come up, you win 2 points and if 1 head comes up you win 1 point. if no heads come up, you lose 3 points.
what is the expected value of the number of points for each turn?
this game is
Step1: Calculate the probability of each outcome
When tossing two coins, the sample space is \(S=\{HH, HT, TH, TT\}\), \(n(S) = 4\).
- Probability of 2 heads (\(P(2H)\)): \(P(2H)=\frac{1}{4}\) (only \(HH\) case).
- Probability of 1 head (\(P(1H)\)): \(P(1H)=\frac{2}{4}=\frac{1}{2}\) (\(HT\) and \(TH\) cases).
- Probability of 0 heads (\(P(0H)\)): \(P(0H)=\frac{1}{4}\) (only \(TT\) case).
Step2: Use the expected - value formula \(E(X)=\sum_{i}x_{i}P(x_{i})\)
Let \(x_1 = 2\) (points for 2 heads), \(x_2=1\) (points for 1 head), \(x_3=- 3\) (points for 0 heads).
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The expected value of the number of points for each turn is \(0.25\). Since the expected value \(E(X)=0.25>0\), this game is fair (if \(E(X) = 0\)) or unfair in favor of the player (since \(E(X)>0\)).