Question

if you found out that a survey predicting whether a ballot initiative would pass or not was wrong by a significant amount, what things might you check to explain why?

correct answer(s)

the sample size
the sampling method
the question wording
where the result was published

Explanation:

Analyze factors affecting survey accuracy

To explain why a survey's prediction was significantly incorrect, we evaluate methodological factors that directly impact statistical validity and bias:

• the sample size: A sample size that is too small increases the margin of error, making predictions unreliable.
• the sampling method: Non-probability or biased sampling (e.g., self-selection) fails to represent the target population accurately.
• the question wording: Leading, confusing, or double-barreled questions introduce response bias and distort results.
• where the result was published: The publication venue itself does not alter the mathematical accuracy or methodology of the survey data.

Identify correct options

The factors that directly explain survey errors are the sample size, the sampling method, and the question wording.

Answer:

• the sample size (Correct answer)
• the sampling method (Correct answer)
• the question wording (Correct answer)
• where the result was published