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scientists have more tools on hand to study this el niño, and can study more elements of the event, uz said. they’re putting these tools to use to ask questions not just about ocean ecology, but about the carbon cycle as well.
\we know how important phytoplankton are for the marine food web, and we’re trying to understand their role as a carbon pump,\ uz said. the carbon pump refers to one of the ways the earth system removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. when phytoplankton die, their carbon - based bodies sink to the ocean floor, where they can remain for millions of years. el niño is a naturally occurring disruption to the typical ocean currents, she said - so it’s important to understand the phenomenon to better attribute what occurs naturally, and what occurs due to human - caused disruptions to the system.
other scientists at goddard are investigating ways to forecast the ebbs and flows of nutrients using the center’s supercomputers, incorporating data like winds, sea surface temperatures, air pressures and more.
\it’s like weather forecasts, but for bionutrients and phytoplankton in the ocean,\ said cecile rousseaux, an ocean modeler with goddard’s global modeling and assimilation office. the forecasts could help fisheries managers estimate how good the catch could be in a particular year, she said, since fish populations depend on phytoplankton populations. the 1997 - 1998 el niño led to a major collapse in the anchovy fishery off of chile, which caused economic hardships for fishermen along the coast.
so far, rousseaux said, the phytoplankton forecast models haven’t shown any collapses for the 2015 - 2016 el niño, possibly because the warm water isn’t reaching as far east in the pacific this time around. the forecast of phytoplankton populations effort is a relatively new effort, she said, so it’s too soon to make definite forecasts. but the data so far, from the modeling group and others, show conditions returning to a more normal state this spring.
the next step for the model, she said, is to try to determine which individual species of

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