Question

regressing to the mean
a farmer harvests apples that are heavier than the average 5 kg weight for that variety. he plants the seeds from the harvest hoping that the next generation will produce even heavier apples. using the results found by galton, which statement is most likely true regarding the weight of the next generation?
the next generation will weigh twice as much as the parent generation, closer to 10 kg.
the next generation will weigh exactly the same as the parent generation.
the next generation will weigh less than the parent generation, closer to 5 kg.
the next generation will weigh less than the parent generation, closer to 2.5 kg.

Explanation:

Galton's principle of regression to the mean states that extreme traits (in this case, heavier - than - average apple weight) tend to move towards the average in subsequent generations. The average weight of the variety is \(5\) kg. The parent generation has apples heavier than \(5\) kg. So, the next generation will not be more extreme (heavier) than the parent generation. It will move towards the mean.

Answer:

The next generation will weigh less than the parent generation, closer to \(5\) kg.